July is officially here, which means it’s officially MLB trade deadline month. This is the month we’ll see plenty of action across the league as contenders look to further improve their roster and sellers try to recoup as much prospect capital as possible.
Some buyers and sellers are known, but with so many teams hovering around the .500 mark and in the midst of the postseason race, it remains a mystery how most teams will operate at the deadline.
The Athletic’s Will Sammon, Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal ($) break down the latest news and rumors circulating around MLB right now.
With a record of 50-34, the Milwaukee Brewers are one of the most surprising teams in the majors right now, if not the most surprising. They just won two of three games against Craig Counsell and the Chicago Cubs and hold a 6.5-game lead in the NL Central over the second-place St. Louis Cardinals.
The most impressive thing about this incredible Brewers season is that they’ve been winning despite getting virtually nothing from their starting rotation. Their 4.21 rotation ERA is just below average, but the 399.2 innings of work they’ve gotten from their starters ranks 29th in the majors. They’re just 2.2 innings ahead of the last-place San Francisco Giants.
This rotation was expected to take a step back with Corbin Burnes being traded to the Baltimore Orioles in the offseason and Brandon Woodruff missing the season due to injury, but it’s been a major weakness. It’s been what’s held the team back, especially considering how dominant their bullpen has been (even without Devin Williams).
Outside of Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee has no one to turn to, so the direction The Athletic’s staff is reporting they’ll take at this year’s deadline is surprising.
“The Milwaukee Brewers, leaders of their division with the third-best record in the National League despite needing pitching help, do not appear inclined to fix that hole through big spending or by trading their top prospects at the deadline, according to people familiar with the club’s thinking.”
They won’t sign anyone to a big contract and they won’t trade their top prospects at the trade deadline. So what does this mean? Are the Brewers going to dumpster dive? Are they going to stick with what they have? Really?
I understand that this is what the Brewers have done, and they have won consistently with this mindset. The only problem is that while it’s true that the Brewers have done damage in the regular season, they have accomplished almost nothing in the postseason. They have made the postseason in five of the past six years and could easily make it six of seven in 2024, but they have made the National League Championship Series just once in that span.
Getting in consistently is nice, but isn’t winning a World Series the goal? In the end, the Brewers will have to take a bit of a risk and consider trading away a prospect if it means they can seriously compete. While they’ve had a nice history, it’s hard to believe they have what it takes to beat teams like the Phillies and Dodgers in October. Adding a legitimate front-line pitcher could change that, but it seems Milwaukee isn’t interested in parting with what it would take to land a pitcher of that caliber, which is a shame.
The Philadelphia Phillies are a team built as well as any to succeed in October. No, they haven’t gotten over the hump the past two seasons, but this could very well be their year. They have arguably the best rotation in the game and have a stacked lineup when everyone is healthy, the only question mark being their bullpen.
Philadelphia lost Craig Kimbrel during the offseason and decided not to replace him, using only internal options for its bullpen. While losing Kimbrel, a reliever with well-documented postseason struggles throughout his career, isn’t a huge deal, not replacing him was a curious decision.
Trading for another late-round pitcher to pair with the likes of Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman makes a lot of sense, and they’re linked to arguably the best reliever available, Tanner Scott of the Miami Marlins.
“Scott, 29, has no sure shot at moving from late-season Marlins to true contender. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is at a career low, and while his ERA entering Sunday was 1.50, his expected ERA was 3.40. But several major clubs, including the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Dodgers, have expressed some level of interest, according to sources familiar with the talks.”
Scott is a pitcher the Phillies are quite familiar with given the fact that he’s spent his last three seasons in the NL East and has dominated in parts of the last two. He just recorded two saves last weekend in Philadelphia, retiring all six batters he faced. Scott was one of the most important players on Miami’s 2023 postseason team and has backed up his breakout campaign with another solid year closing games for them in 2024.
The 29-year-old has a 1.50 ERA in 35 appearances and 36 innings pitched. While walks are certainly a concern, 12 of the 23 walks he has issued this season came in his first eight appearances of the season. He has since done a much better job of throwing strikes, issuing a much more manageable 11 walks in his last 27.1 innings of work.
Scott is a rental player, so the Phillies wouldn’t have to spend a fortune to acquire him, but with so many teams in the race interested, he won’t come cheap. The Phillies need another late-game arm and Scott is the guy. Let’s see if they can get him.
With the deadline quickly approaching, all eyes are on the Toronto Blue Jays. They weren’t expecting to sell, but with a 38-45 record heading into Monday’s action, they may not have a choice. They’d have to play incredibly well to flip the script.
Selling would almost certainly mean rentals like Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Turner would be gone, but it could also mean veterans with more years left on their contracts would be left on the bench. Yes, that includes players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.
Guerrero is probably less likely given the season he’s having, but Bichette has struggled and the Jays could look to trade him now that he has time left on his contract rather than risk doing so in his retirement year when his price will only come down from where it is now. If Bichette were to be traded, the Los Angeles Dodgers make a lot of sense for a variety of reasons. Unfortunately, The Athletic lists one big reason why that fit might not be as perfect as many once thought.
“Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, dating back to his days with the Tampa Bay Rays, is a strict proponent of defense. Think of the Dodgers’ biggest position player acquisitions: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Manny Machado at the 2018 deadline. They were all strong defenders.”
If the Dodgers are going to prioritize defense, well, Bichette just isn’t working out. As good as Bichette usually is offensively, his defense has consistently lagged. He’s in the 57th percentile in outs above average according to Baseball Savant, which is actually an improvement over what he’s done in the past, but still not good enough. While a guy like Miguel Rojas doesn’t hit much at shortstop, he’s in the 96th percentile in OAA.
Bichette’s offensive prowess typically overshadows his poor defense, but he has a mere .623 OPS in 70 games played this season. His -0.2 bWAR shows just how poorly he’s played both offensively and defensively this season.
His bat would be a nice addition, but would the Dodgers be willing to pay a high price for a prospect and consider a lucrative extension for a poor defensive shortstop? Based on Andrew Friedman’s track record, the answer is probably no. Bichette’s biggest flaw could be what impacts whether he is traded or not.
