MINOT — Let’s start by establishing that the mistake Democrats are making is not President Joe Biden dropping out of his reelection campaign.
It was the right decision. An act of humility — of America-first patriotism — from which Trump-obsessed Republicans could learn a thing or two. Americans should have better options at the ballot box. Democrats, at least, have begun the process of pandering to them.
No, the mistake is to focus too quickly on Vice President Kamala Harris as Biden’s replacement.
Democratic voters with big money are already making it rain money for Harris. Her campaign haul, since Biden made his announcement, has already surpassed the windfall enjoyed by Donald Trump after his conviction on multiple felonies by a New York jury.
Every state Democratic party chair has endorsed Harris.
Biden himself has endorsed Harris to replace him, and so far, with just 28 days to go until the Democratic Party’s national convention, no serious challenger has emerged to take her on.
Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has indicated he is interested in seeking his party’s nomination, but I find it hard to believe Democrats would be interested in replacing the grizzled Biden with the grizzled Manchin, whose appeal among our liberal friends is such that he opted to leave his party this spring.
I mean, I’d be fine with Manchin, but I’m a conservative and far from the demographic of Democratic convention delegates who will ultimately make this decision.
No, there won’t be a groundswell of support that will carry Manchin to the presidential nomination, but Democrats, who have insisted (not incorrectly) that this election is a turning point for the future of our republic, should consider their options before betting everything on Harris.
According to a poll commissioned by The Economist, which measured public opinion between July 13 and 16, Harris won less than 40% of the vote against Trump. Her net approval rating is -12%. In 2010, when she ran her first statewide campaign in California for attorney general, she barely won, beating the Republican candidate by 1%. In, mind you, the real California, where Republicans have not won a statewide election in nearly three decades.
When he sought the presidency in 2020, his campaign collapsed before the first primary ballots were cast.
Harris, as vice president, served as the Biden administration’s border czar and was so ineffective at her job that a Gallup poll in June found that a whopping 77% of Americans think the situation at the border is a “crisis” or at least a “major problem.” Is this really the person Democrats want running against Trump, who has, quite effectively, made border security a major campaign issue?
By the way, during her tenure in the U.S. Senate, Harris had one of the most left-leaning voting records in that chamber — not much help at a time when Democrats are struggling to figure out how to appeal to the independent voters and Trump-weary Republicans they’ll need to win this election. And having served as vice president, Harris now must shoulder the burden of the Biden administration on everything from inflation (one of the top five concerns for voters, according to Gallup) to its role in covering up Biden’s weaknesses from the public.
But beyond the problems with Harris, Democrats are denying themselves the opportunity to captivate the nation with a vigorous competition among alternative candidates if they continue to support the vice president.
Yes, that has its risks. With such a short timeline, Democrats can ill-afford the kind of factionalism and back-and-forth criticism that so often accompanies intraparty contests. The last thing they want is for losing supporters of a candidate who was not considered to stay home on Election Day and hand the victory to Trump.
But if they take the risk, they could capture the imagination of the American public, keep Trump and Republicans on the defensive and likely find a candidate who is more competitive than Harris against her rival.
It is the path that Democrats should choose. And, yes, it is risky, but so was removing the incumbent president from the race 106 days before the election.
It’s a bet worth making.
