The 2016 vote was overtaken by a confusing mix of promises of economic benefits – more money to spend on critical services and lower immigration rates – from men now seen by some as charlatans, such as former prime minister Boris Johnson and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
Farage himself now says Brexit has “failed” but blames the Conservative government.
Credit: Image by Adobe Stock/ Illustration: Marija Ercegovac
Research by think tank UK in a Changing Europe found that the most common reasons people feel Brexit is going badly are economic: rising prices, staff shortages and a weaker economy overall. This is the case for both Remain and Leave voters.
Several research studies have shown that voters have a negative opinion about the direction Brexit has taken so far. Even among those who voted for Brexit, fewer than one in five believe Brexit is going well, although most seem hesitant to make a definitive assessment.
Most blame the decision itself; others blame the British government for not making better use of it; and others say Brexit was unlucky, coming into effect shortly before the pandemic and the Ukraine war, both of which distracted the government and damaged the economy.
In Britain, many Brexiteers feel betrayed. Last month, billionaire businessman Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the new owner of Manchester United, said Brexit had not worked and that voters would flock to Labour as a result.
Charging
Ratcliffe, a staunch supporter of leaving the EU, criticised the Conservative government’s performance and said Brexit had ultimately failed to tackle immigration.
“Sadly, Brexit didn’t turn out the way people expected,” he told Sky News last month. “Brexit was very much about immigration. That was the main component of that vote.
“People were getting tired of the influx of people the size of the city of Southampton arriving every year. I think last year it was double Southampton.
“A small island like the UK cannot cope with large numbers of people arriving. It simply overloads the NHS, the traffic service and the police.”
The Brexit referendum in June 2016 was the first in a series of populist earthquakes that shook Western politics. It was soon followed by the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.
Both will go down in history as revolts by those who felt abandoned by globalization, taken for granted by traditional politicians and despised by urban elites. Both set in motion forces that are still manifesting.
But Ratcliffe’s comments on immigration and Brexit deciding the next general election are at odds with the polls. According to Ipsos’ latest monthly “issue index”, immigration is only the fourth most important issue for Britons.
Protester Steve Bray holds a sign reading: “Brexit wasn’t worth it” last year.Credit: fake images
Its latest survey of 1,035 adults suggests the most important issue is the economy (34 per cent), followed by the National Health Service (29 per cent) and inflation (27 per cent). Immigration was mentioned by 24 percent of respondents.
And that is where Brexit has left its mark. Goldman Sachs estimates that the British economy is now 5% smaller than it would have been without Brexit, although some say it is difficult to adequately separate that from the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a British think tank, estimated that Brexit has resulted in an annual per capita income loss of £850 ($1,600) since 2020.
While the anti-Brexit sentiment of most voters is evident, that does not translate into a burning desire to re-fight old battles. In this general election campaign, it is only said in a low voice. No traditional leader is brave enough to admit that he has failed, let alone promise to reverse the decision.
Professor Michael Gasiorek, of Chatham House, says that while Britain may theoretically have regained control over areas such as migration, as Brexit campaigners said it would, evidence shows that leaving the EU has negatively affected the economy. .
“It is quite clear why the Conservatives do not want to talk about the EU. Brexit, which they championed, has not offered many economic advantages and immigration levels have not decreased,” he said. “The government has failed to organise itself to use sovereignty effectively.”
Charging
Beyond the economic impact, Brexit has become synonymous with broken political promises and poor governance, and the ruling Conservatives are about to pay the price.
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