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Israel and Hezbollah could be one misstep away from starting a devastating war that neither wants, experts and security officials have said. The National.
Both sides have been stepping up their air and rocket attacks for weeks, raising fears that the conflict is on the verge of erupting into all-out war.
According to a Lebanese official aligned with Hezbollah, the war has already begun.
“If you compare the beginning with the present, it is a war. The Israelis… are everywhere. Their escalation shows that they want Lebanon to go to war,” he said. The National.
The Israeli military and Hezbollah possess vast arsenals that would dwarf the damage from their last war in 2006.
Hezbollah is believed to have up to 150,000 rockets, enough to fire up to 1,500 a day, according to some estimates, up from about 15,000 in 2006.
Meanwhile, Israel has one of the world’s largest air forces, responsible for leveling most of Gaza, where nearly 37,400 Palestinians have been killed since the war began on Oct. 7, according to local health officials.
It was sparked by Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people.
It is clear that the Israelis seek to involve Lebanon in this war.
lebanese official
Karim El Mufti, professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris, said: “The 2006 war is small compared to what this is and what could break out.”
The month-long war that year, sparked by a cross-border Hezbollah incursion, killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon and caused $5 billion in damage to the country.
Some 120 Israeli soldiers and 40 civilians were killed in Israel, while almost half a million Israelis and one million Lebanese were displaced.
The sharp rise in attacks in recent weeks has raised fears of a return to 2006, albeit much worse.
Goals
Israel wants to eliminate the security threat posed by Hezbollah so that some 60,000 displaced residents can return to their homes near the border, while the Lebanese armed movement said it will not stop its attacks until Israel ends its bombing of the Strip. from Gaza.
He said he doesn’t want a full-scale war but is prepared for it.
The Hezbollah-aligned official said Lebanon wants Israel to respect UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, even if it has never been fully implemented in the 18 years since then.
While Lebanon and Israel are technically enemy states, and the Lebanese government has repeatedly criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza, Beirut has said it does not want a war but has little control over Hezbollah.
Lebanon accuses Israel of regularly violating the terms of Resolution 1701, whether by launching attacks against Israel, infringing on the country’s territory or occupying land claimed by Beirut.
“(The Israelis) are always escalating, not just at the border,” the official said. “They are targeting all of Lebanon. It is clear that the Israelis seek to involve Lebanon in this war. “Lebanon does not want this war.”
On the other hand, Israel would point to the fact that United Nations Security Council 1701 also calls for the disarmament of non-state militias, in reference to Hezbollah.
Israel has vowed to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, which the armed group strongly opposes.
Ceasefire potential
The risk of escalation has led to a diplomatic effort by foreign powers, including the United States and France, to avoid war.
US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon and Israel this week. He said it was “achievable” and “urgent” for a resolution to be reached.
He also said the US ceasefire proposal for Gaza “provides an opportunity to end the conflict” in the border area between Israel and Lebanon.
The United States has been pressuring Israel and Hamas to formally accept the ceasefire agreement approved by members of the UN Security Council, which would allow an initial six-week pause in fighting.
Hezbollah said it will not end its attacks until there is a ceasefire in Gaza.
The Hezbollah-aligned official also accused Israel of refusing to accept the ceasefire, while repeating the accusation often leveled at Benjamin Netanyahu that the Israeli Prime Minister seeks to prolong his stay in office by attacking Lebanon.
Israel has not formally said it supports the ceasefire proposal. Hamas has given positive indications and at the same time presented the requested changes.
“We have not heard from Netanyahu or (Israeli Defense Minister Yoav) Gallant that they have accepted,” the Lebanese official said.
“If you look at war strategy throughout modern history, this is one of the most controlled escalations in history,” Professor El Mufti said. The National.
“But Pandora’s Box is open in Gaza and unless that front is closed, there will be a potential explosion between Hezbollah and Israel.”
While a ceasefire in Gaza is seen as the best chance to ease tension on the Lebanese border, some experts have warned that long-standing tension between Hezbollah and Israel will remain anyway.
Is there already a war?
The tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border who have been displaced from their homes could say the war has already begun.
Both sides have expanded the scope and intensity of their attacks, with Hezbollah using increasingly advanced weaponry and Israel attacking all the way to Lebanon’s northern border with Syria, on the other side of the country.
The aligned Lebanese official said the Israeli escalation showed it wanted “Lebanon to be involved in the war.”
U.N. officials in Lebanon recently said the risk of miscalculations remained high, a view heard elsewhere in the region.
“A mistake is for a rocket to hit a bus full of schoolchildren. That’s World War Three and World War Four combined,” said Lior Shelef, an Israeli army reservist who lives in Kibbutz Snir, a few kilometers from the Lebanese border.
“It is what will happen when this error occurs and it will happen eventually. It’s just a question of when.
“When the game was taking place in the buffer zone inside Lebanon, we could make sure that there were no mistakes on our part. And if they are going to make mistakes, they will suffer the consequences.
“The problem is that today a mistake that occurs here could be serious. And the problem is that it will be very difficult for us to convince people to live here again.”
While the risk of miscalculation remains high, Professor El Mufti said there were too many parameters to consider to know what would be “the straw that breaks the camel’s back”.
“This is very new for Israel. They have no solutions and are incapable of thinking outside the box,” she added.
“They only have violent solutions that will not work in this case.” For this reason “the Israelis will be the first to lose, given Hezbollah’s behavior throughout the conflict.”
“I don’t think Hezbollah is exaggerating because they have more to lose than the Israelis,” Professor El Mufti said.
Despite losing some 300 fighters, Hezbollah has maintained a policy of restraint since October 8, when it launched its first attack against Israeli positions.
Meanwhile, Israel is more likely to be a catalyst for an all-out war “because it has nothing to lose,” Professor El Mufti said.
“They have already broken many boundaries regarding their relationship with the United States and the world’s perception of them, disengaging from international law and the ICJ and the ICC… and getting away with it so far.
“They have been avoiding civilian targets, demonstrating that they respect international law even though they are not internationally recognized as a resistance except by (their allies) and the Lebanese state.”
With strong Iranian backing, Hezbollah is also eager to restore deterrence. On Tuesday, the group released drone footage deep inside Israeli territory, over the port city of Haifa and nearby cities.
The drone had filmed Israeli military and civilian sites, sending a powerful reminder that the group is capable of causing much more damage in Israel than in 2006, but has so far been contained.
Updated: June 19, 2024 at 18:56
