When the history of this election campaign is written, one question will perplex the compilers more than any other: why now? Conservative officials and police officers investigated for alleged breaches of gambling law by betting on an early contest in July will have gotten very good odds for the simple reason that no one expected it.
This is not surprising, since no Prime Minister has voluntarily gone to a country that is 20 points behind in opinion polls. With six months left to call elections, during which anything could have happened, holding them now was irrational.
Michael Gove praised Rishi Sunak’s courage: “He who dares wins,” he said before concluding, like the brave Sir Robin, that discretion is the better part of courage and walking away from Parliament.
We will never be able to know the counterfactual and many will argue that the timing is irrelevant because the Conservatives have done away with everything Sunak did. Indeed, the party’s prospects may have diminished further in the autumn, although it is difficult to see how anything could be worse than the position the Conservatives now find themselves in.
But equally, in true Mr. Micawber fashion, something could have happened. Better economic prospects, with inflation back to 2 per cent and interest rates likely to fall before the end of the year, would have fueled the feeling that things are not so dire after all, limiting the scale of Labor’s victory. Sunak would have had a few months of positive numbers to boast about and people would have felt the improvement, especially if the cost of borrowing had fallen.
Any sensible person considering the options for an election would have ruled out the summer because the agenda was packed with important events (D-Day commemorations, a NATO meeting and a G7 summit) as well as sporting distractions such as the European championships. football and Wimbledon. .
And a six-week campaign? Who could have thought that was wise? I suspect most voters walked away weeks ago. Many will have already voted by mail. Wednesday’s televised head-to-head debate between Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer threatens to come to nothing. The latter was watched by only 4.8 million viewers. Even Scotland, which was kicked out of the Euro Cup by Hungary, had 10 million.
Perhaps in his rain-soaked announcement on May 22, Sunak hoped to surprise his opponents; Instead, he seriously misled his own party, which was unprepared, still had dozens of candidates to select, and looked forward to a summer in which the message of an improving economy could be conveyed.
What’s more, if he had waited until the fall, Nigel Farage could have gotten out of the way and committed to helping Donald Trump in his presidential campaign. The entry of the reformist leader of the United Kingdom into the elections has been one of the biggest losses of support for the Conservatives. Another explanation was concern that the courts could once again declare Rwanda’s deportation plan illegal. However, the judiciary trying to frustrate the will of Parliament could have worked for Sunak, not against him.
Perhaps the Prime Minister was simply fed up and couldn’t bear the prospect of spending another six months as a target of pre-election attacks. At one point, he might have genuinely feared a leadership challenge; but that threat evaporated just after the local elections in May, which was the moment of greatest danger. However, he did not even tell his cabinet colleagues before going to see the King to request a dissolution, which is unusual, if not unprecedented, presumably because he feared they would try to stop him.
As for errors at election time, they are among the most spectacular of the last 60 years. By 1970, Harold Wilson had endured years of political turmoil, with the devaluation of the pound and internal Labor Party battles over union reform and the Common Market.
But despite a majority of 96 votes obtained in 1966, he decided to go to the country a year earlier than necessary. His political advisor, Marcia Williams, was in favor of “going all the way”, since the polls did not look good, but after a few weeks with Labor ahead, Wilson opted for June 18. He lost.
That election also coincided with a major soccer tournament and, just days before the election, world champions England were beaten 3-2 by West Germany in the World Cup in Mexico. According to Nick Thomas-Symonds in his recent biography, Wilson “was convinced that the negative atmosphere he created affected the election result”, although the defeat was probably more due to the poor trade figures published just days before the election.
Another prime minister who called elections when it was not necessary was Theresa May in 2017. With about 20 points ahead in the polls and a majority of 17, she wanted a broader mandate to carry out her Brexit policy. Instead, she lost her majority and had to strike a deal with the DUP to remain in office.
Then there are the prime ministers who didn’t leave when they should have. James Callaghan, without a majority, was widely expected to call an election in October 1978 after a pact with the Liberals collapsed.
He put an end to speculation by addressing the TUC conference. “I haven’t promised anyone that I’ll be at the altar in October,” he said, before singing “There I was, waiting in the church…” Unfortunately for Sunny Jim, the interregnum was filled with the Winter of Discontent, ruining Labor possibilities. and bring Margaret Thatcher to power the following May.
Another prime minister who had reason to regret his procrastination was Gordon Brown. In 2007, he finally succeeded Tony Blair and everyone around him was reporting that he would seek his own personal mandate. But he bottled it and he never recovered from the impression of indecision this gave him. Damian McBride, No. 10 advisor, called it “the biggest error of judgment in Brown’s long career, which completely changed the way he was perceived and defined.” Labor was never again in the lead in the polls.
Sunak, then, is the latest in a long line of prime ministers who misjudge the timing of their elections. In his case, however, the consequences for his party could well be terminal.
