June 30, 2024, 2:29 p.m.
NHL general managers are closing in on what could be one of the biggest free-agent buyouts in recent memory.
With little to no increase in the salary cap, it has been a challenge for teams to sign some of the top free agents in recent years. This shouldn’t be surprising, given that the total salary cap increase has been just $4 million over the last six seasons.
The salary cap ceiling will now rise to $88 million for the upcoming 2024-25 season, which represents a nice increase of $4.5 million (5.4 percent increase). The last time we saw an increase like that was in the 2018-19 season, when the salary cap rose from $75 million to $79.5 million ($4.5 million or a 6.0 percent increase).
While this increase should excite hockey fans, who want to see movement in the league, there is a caveat. Having more money to spend does not necessarily mean that teams will spend it wisely.
Of course, no general manager will hit the mark with every free agent signed or trade made, but there are deals he regrets.
The history of past free agency periods where the salary cap saw a significant increase shows how easy it is to make those mistakes.
Here’s a look back at some of the most notable ones.
2018 Free Agency
Salary cap increase: from $75 million to $79.5 million (6.0%)
James Neal, Calgary Flames: Five years, $5.75 million AAV
If there was a chance to repeat the success, the Flames would definitely take a chance on signing Neal. It is true that the striker was a consistent 20-goal scorer, but it was also clear that he was no longer in his prime.
Things were so bad in the first year of the deal, in which he scored just seven goals in 63 games, that the Flames shipped Neal out of town to the Edmonton Oilers for Milan Lucic. Neal was eventually bought out and the Flames had Lucic with them for the remainder of his contract, even if he only provided a marginal improvement in production.
Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel, Vancouver Canucks: Four years, $3 million AAV
If there’s a cautionary tale about overpaying for role/depth players, the Canucks’ signing of Beagle and Roussel to identical four-year, $12 million contracts tells that story pretty well.
The idea behind these agreements was to take advantage of the experience that both players could bring to a young squad. Unfortunately, it was also a lot of money to pay players who were nothing more than fourth-line players, and while the Canucks had cap space at the time, those contracts proved to be mainstays as the team attempted to make improvements.
The duo were part of a blockbuster trade with the Arizona Coyotes in an attempt to offload Loui Eriksson’s contract with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland joining Vancouver. Ultimately, the Canucks bought out Ekman-Larsson for the final four years of his contract and he would win a Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers this season.
Leo Komarov, New York Islanders: Four years, $3 million average annual value
A much-loved member of the Leafs, Komarov drew interest from a few teams in free agency and decided to join the Islanders. Unfortunately, Komarov saw his role reduced on Long Island and it showed in his production, as he scored a total of 11 goals and 48 points in 164 games.
The Islanders eventually placed the Russian forward on unconditional waivers to opt out of his contract, and Komarov would sign in the KHL with St. Petersburg.
Jack Johnson, Pittsburgh Penguins: Five years, $3.25 million average annual value
There was a lot of hesitation when the Penguins offered Johnson a long-term contract, considering he was coming off a season in which he scored 11 points in 77 games. He was also looking to leave Columbus in hopes of putting himself in a better position before free agency.
There were plenty of warning signs about his play through analytics, but general manager Jim Rutherford insisted Johnson was worth the long-term contract. However, head coach Mike Sullivan was not convinced and even left the defender out of the playoffs due to injury.
After just two seasons, the Penguins decided to cut their losses and bought out the final three years of Johnson’s contract. Even then, Rutherford would come to defend the defenseman.
“He’s never been given a chance here from the start,” Rutherford said in 2019. “I don’t understand it. It’s been extremely unfair to him. Extremely so. He’s a good player. I think he’s doing well. I think he’s doing perfectly well.”
How bad did this deal end up for Pittsburgh? Johnson’s buyout is still on the books for two more seasons with a cap hit of $916,667.
2014 Free Agency
Salary cap increase: from $64.3 million to $69 million (7.31%)
Dave Bolland, Chicago Blackhawks: Five years, $5.5 million VAA
Bolland will always be remembered for his Stanley Cup-clinching goal in 2013 against the Boston Bruins. However, the former Chicago Blackhawks forward failed to live up to the expectations that moment created for him afterwards.
After being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, his hometown team, an ankle tendon laceration shortened his 2013-14 season to just 23 games. When Toronto decided to release him in free agency, Bolland would reunite with former Blackhawks general manager Dale Tallon in Florida, but like his time in Toronto, he failed to live up to the hype.
After just 78 games over two seasons with the Panthers, where he contributed just 28 points, Bolland was sent down to the AHL. His contract would later be traded to the Arizona Coyotes and he never played in the NHL again due to a back injury.
Stéphane Robidas, Toronto Maple Leafs: Three years, $3 million AAV
Looking to add a stable veteran presence on the blue line, the Leafs signed Robidas. However, that deal carried certain risks, as the 37-year-old was coming off a season in which he suffered multiple leg fractures.
In his first season with the Leafs, Robidas would appear in 52 games, but would never play with the team again. The Leafs would quietly place Robidas, Nathan Horton (more on him later), and Joffrey Lupul on long-term injury reserve to free up cap space. This would eventually give rise to the infamous term “Robidas Island” for teams looking to offload a deal with a convenient career-ending injury.
This would be something the Leafs would see happen often with other players like Jared Cowen, Jake Muzzin and now Matt Murray. Other teams would take notice and use LTIR to help get around the salary cap in creative ways.
Free Agency 2013
Salary cap increase: from $60 million to $64.3 million (7.17%)
David Clarkson, Toronto Maple Leafs: Seven years, $5.25 million AAV
After their first playoff appearance in nearly a decade that ended in a Game 7 collapse against the Boston Bruins, the Leafs were looking to bolster their lineup. At the start of free agency, they went out and made a splash, signing Clarkson to a seven-year, $36.75 million contract and some dubbed the former New Jersey Devil forward the second coming of Wendel Clark due to his grit and leadership. . Furthermore, he was two seasons away from scoring 30 goals.
Clarkson’s time with the Leafs couldn’t have started worse. He was suspended for 10 games for leaving the bench to take part in a fight, and it was as if the forward had been playing catch-up ever since. He was never really able to redeem himself and it was becoming increasingly clear that he couldn’t live up to the expectations placed on him.
The Leafs decided to move on from the struggling forward by trading him to the Blue Jackets for Nathan Horton, who was benched with a degenerative back injury and never played another NHL game.
Stephen Weiss, Detroit Red Wings: Five years, $4.9 million GOING TO
Ken Holland surprised many when he decided to take a chance on Weiss with a five-year contract after he had played in just 17 games the previous year due to a wrist injury. Clearly, the Red Wings were counting on Weiss to bounce back and produce like he did in previous seasons.
Unfortunately, Weiss only lasted two seasons in Detroit with injuries and limited production, forcing Holland to opt out of the final three years of his contract. That buyout would remain on the Red Wings’ salary cap for six seasons, but it was seen as a necessary move as the team needed room for other moves.
Ryane Clowe, New Jersey Devils: Five years, $4.86 million average annual value
This contract was a significant risk for the Devils, as Clowe had a history of concussions and was coming off a season in which he scored just three goals and 19 points in 40 games. It was clear that Lou Lamoriello was counting on Clowe to deliver on his performance during his time with the San Jose Sharks, where he had 271 points in 423 games.
Those injury concerns would follow Clowe to New Jersey. After dressing for 43 games in his first season, he only played 13 games in his second, and doctors advised him not to play again after suffering another concussion, his fourth head injury in about 19 months.
Mike Ribeiro, Arizona Coyotes: Four years, $5.5 million average annual value
Ribeiro joined the Coyotes after posting a point-per-game performance with the Washington Capitals, but that production did not follow. He scored a respectable 47 points in 80 games, although he was pulled twice due to injury.
His stay in Arizona was short-lived as the Coyotes decided to buy out the final three years of his contract with the team, citing behavioral issues as the reason behind their decision.
Nathan Horton, Columbus Blue Jackets: Seven years, $5.3 million
Horton made it known that he had interest in joining the Blue Jackets, and they gave him a big push with a seven-year commitment, but it wasn’t without concerns.
Horton had a complicated injury history, including a shoulder injury that required off-season surgery, and a history of concussions. Unfortunately, Horton’s tenure only lasted 36 games, and the team was in a tough spot because Columbus did not secure his contract.
“With Nathan, there was a chance we would have paid him $26 million over the next five years to sit in the stands,” general manager Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time. “This is a very important financial decision for us.”
The Blue Jackets would find a way out of that ordeal by trading Horton’s contract to the Leafs for Clarkson, although Clarkson’s tenure in Columbus was also plagued by injuries.
