The Grizzlies’ biggest mistake in 2024 NBA free agency

As things stand right now, the Memphis Grizzlies are not a team with cap space.

After selecting potential difference-maker Josh Edey in the draft and the initial moves of free agency, the Grizzlies are still over the salary cap, but have roughly $11.5 million under the first apron and $22.3 million under the second, according to Spotrac, leaving them with plenty of different ways to fill out their depth chart heading into the fall, from good old-fashioned trades to the mid-level exception for contributors, or part of the Mid-level exception for non-taxpayersaccording to Keith Smith, to sign veterans off the street for minimal money.

And yet, despite having a pair of quality seasons after being acquired from the Los Angeles Clippers, one player who is not guaranteed a return to the Grizzlies this fall is Luke Kennard, the Duke forward who joined the team in 2022.

Originally drafted by the Detroit Pistons in 2017, Kennard has proven to be one of the NBA’s most lethal shooters, hitting an astonishing 43.9 percent of his 3-point attempts on 4.6 attempts per game while also filling out the rest of the stat sheet in pursuit of his team’s success on the court, averaging 2.1 assists and 2.8 rebounds to go along with an average of 10 points per game. Is Kennard a great defender? No. Is Kennard a good defender? No. But you know what? When you can hit nearly half of the 3s you take in a given game, teams are going to pay you a premium to do it regularly.

Originally coming to Memphis on a four-year, $56 million contract, the Grizzlies opted to decline Kennard’s team option of just under $15 million, allowing him to sign wherever he could and wherever he wanted.

So far, the decision hasn’t affected the Grizzlies too much, as Kennard hasn’t signed with any other teams yet and many of the teams that might have been interested in his services, such as the Philadelphia 76ers, have spent their money in free agency on other players, but what if they hadn’t? What if a team like Philadelphia or the Clippers had ended up signing Kennard and the Grizzlies had to make a move in a market that was already incredibly short on talent less than two weeks into the season?

While the decision to terminate Kennard’s contract may ultimately make the Grizzlies look like geniuses if they manage to keep him on a long-term deal with a lower annual salary, it’s equally possible that things could go the other way and they end up paying more or losing him altogether.

Memphis Grizzlies guard Luke Kennard (10) takes a shot against the Miami Heat during the first half at Kaseya Center.
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Luke Kennard remains a priority for the Grizzlies

After watching the vast majority of other NBA teams get serious about free agency, with everyone from Paul George to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to even Chris Paul coming off the board shortly after the start of free agency, the Grizzlies have largely been stuck in a holding pattern as they wait to see what Kennard decides to do, whether it’s return on a new contract, sign with a team with cap space, or retire from basketball altogether, which likely won’t happen but is technically possible.

When discussing how the second, if not third wave of free agency has played out for HoopsHype, Michael Scotto made it clear that the Grizzlies are still very interested in bringing Kennard back, as he was an incredibly useful player for the team last year and could fit with what they want to do moving forward.

“Free agent Luke Kennard remains expected to return to the Memphis Grizzlies, league sources told HoopsHype,” Michael Scotto wrote. “Kennard shot 45 percent from 3-point range last season for Memphis, and his return would bolster a Grizzlies team looking to get back to the playoffs and make a deep run in the Western Conference playoffs with a healthy Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart back.”

While the Grizzlies clearly didn’t want to keep Kennard for just over $15 million for next NBA season, so much so that they allowed him to test the open market to avoid their cap number, they clearly still see a future where the former Clippers sharpshooter remains on the team alongside Morant, Bane and company, so much so that he may end up signing a new, longer contract with more money overall, even if the per-year price is a few million below his original asking price.

If both sides can come to an agreement — which, considering the lack of money to spend in free agency, seems like a strong possibility — it’s safe to say their marriage could continue to be as fruitful as it’s proven over the past two seasons, especially with Zack Eddy setting screens from outside the arc.

(tags for translation)Luke Kennard