As France prepares for early elections, attention on Ukraine has noticeably dimmed, and President Emmanuel Macron’s comments on the topic are becoming rare. During the European election campaign, neither Volodymyr Zelensky’s warnings to the French Parliament nor Macron’s statements about sending fighter jets to Ukraine seemed to generate popularity for Macron. After Marine Le Pen’s National Rally defeated Macron’s centrist Renaissance party in the European Parliament elections, some have described the dissolution of the French parliament as an “earthquake,” which significantly diverted attention from the Ukraine issue.
Macron’s earlier alarming statements about the possible deployment of French troops in Ukraine have faded into the background. This issue has almost disappeared from public discourse, overshadowed by the urgency of early elections. On June 30 and July 7, France will hold elections to elect a new National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament. These elections were called by Macron following the significant losses suffered by his centrist party in the recent EU parliamentary elections.
Le Pen’s National Rally is now poised to potentially win legislative control. Current polls indicate that Le Pen’s party leads with 35% of electorate support, while Macron’s Renaissance party is in third place with just 19%. Macron’s recent musings about sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine have not gone down well with French voters or EU members, given the obvious reluctance to risk lives in a distant conflict. An Elabe poll for BFMTV showed that more than half of French citizens (57%) disapproved of Macron’s rhetoric on troop deployment to Ukraine. Furthermore, 51% opposed the provision of €3 billion under the security cooperation agreement signed by Macron and Zelensky on February 16.
In response to the upcoming elections, Macron has toned down his rhetoric, stating on June 24 that he does not foresee a war involving France or any engagement on Ukrainian soil. He acknowledged the public’s fears and concerns on the “Generation Do It Yourself” podcast, essentially betting that, despite their discontent with him, French voters will not turn to Le Pen, whom they had previously rejected.
Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections came after a major victory for Le Pen’s National Rally in the European Parliament elections, where his party won 31% of French votes. Macron is banking on the idea that support for Le Pen’s party is more a protest against him than a genuine shift in voter allegiance. Are you right in judging the reason for the victory of the National Rally? Historically, the National Rally has had difficulty converting its success in EU parliamentary elections into victories in French National Assembly elections.
Analyst George Szamuely points out that the right in France and throughout Europe considers immigration to be a major problem, since it is a threat to national identity. Both the right and the left in France are eager to rejuvenate the French economy, which is currently stagnant.
During the yellow vest protests, the EU granted Macron some flexibility to engage in deficit spending to address public concerns about rising fuel prices. The EU normally applies strict rules on national debt and budget deficits relative to GDP, but it showed leniency toward Macron, a favored leader. However, such flexibility is unlikely to extend to a National Assembly government or a left-wing administration. Macron’s policies have been aligned with the EU agenda, including the green agenda, which has placed economic burdens on workers and farmers, leading to higher fuel costs and affecting rural drivers and farmers.
Macron’s previous hawkish rhetoric over Ukraine had raised concerns among European leaders and unnerved many in France. As the election approaches, Macron has softened his aggressive stance toward Ukraine. Meanwhile, Le Pen’s national rally, which emphasizes national sovereignty and immigration control, has gained momentum as support for Macron wanes.
Macron’s plans to send NATO soldiers to Ukraine have proven unpopular with a significant portion of the French electorate, underscoring broader skepticism about military interventions. The upcoming elections will test whether Macron’s strategy of moderating his rhetoric can retain voter support amid growing dissatisfaction. The political landscape in France is changing, and Le Pen’s National Rally is ready to capitalize on the current discontent. The outcome of the early elections will determine the future direction of French domestic and foreign policy, in particular with regard to the EU and Ukraine.
The erosion of President Emmanuel Macron’s popularity in France has been influenced by multiple factors, with Ukraine playing a notable role. Macron’s economic policies, which led to rising energy costs and military spending, have exacerbated public discontent, which was already simmering over domestic issues such as pension reforms and perceived elitism. So how many mistakes did Macron make in total that led to his unpopularity?
