The world was stunned by Donald Trump’s “America First” strategy and his skepticism toward traditional alliances like NATO when he took office in 2016.
In 2016, no one in the world was prepared for President Trump. America’s NATO allies are not making the same mistake this time.
During his presidency, Trump frequently criticized NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and threatened to withdraw the United States from the alliance if members did not increase their military budgets.
This time, as Trump eyes a possible return to the White House in 2024, a new Politico article suggests that NATO allies and other nations are scrambling to position themselves for a second Trump term. Drawing on his previous tenure, they anticipate that a Trump administration would be defined by isolationism, confrontation with allies, and a laser focus on countering China rather than Russia.
According to the article, countries are taking three main steps to prepare:
First, there is extensive personal contact with Trump and his advisers, in the hope of building relationships that will help minimize conflicts.
Second, there are policy changes intended to please Trump and his political coalition, mainly by appeasing Trump’s complaints about inadequate European defense spending.
Third, creative diplomatic and legal measures are being prepared to shield NATO priorities from manipulation by a Trump administration. There are also bipartisan efforts underway in Congress to make it more difficult for a president to withdraw from NATO without congressional approval.
The preparations underscore how Trump’s past criticism of NATO as “obsolete” and his transactional view of alliances have fundamentally transformed international relations.
Allies who once hoped Trump’s term would be a mere flash in the pan now see “Trumpism” as an entrenched ideology they must contend with.
But some analysts warn that personal overtures and political concessions may prove futile given Trump’s unpredictable nature.
An adviser said: “We don’t know – and I don’t think anyone knows exactly – what he will do.”
There are concerns that Trump could be even more disruptive in a second term without the restraints of advisers like Jim Mattis and H.R. McMaster, who acted as a check on his “America First” instincts during his first presidency.
While panic over a full U.S. withdrawal from NATO has subsided, the alliance remains concerned about Trump’s ambivalence toward collective defense, given his past threats to abandon allies who don’t pay their fair share. Some former officials have indicated limits to how far the U.S. would go to defend NATO members, such as the Baltic states, against Russian aggression.
Ultimately, the extraordinary preparations underway globally represent a plausible strategy for stability under a Trump presidency, the article argues, but concludes that much still depends on the whims of Trump himself, whom one European diplomat described as a “loose cannon” whose policies “don’t really work” by traditional standards.
