Formula 1 heads into its summer break after another thrilling race that summed up many of the year’s storylines in one afternoon.
George Russell lost what would have been one of the most extraordinary wins of the season when his car was disqualified for being 1.5kg underweight after the Belgian Grand Prix.
But Mercedes confirmed its remarkable recovery after a difficult start to the season, as Lewis Hamilton inherited victory from his teammate, after whom the seven-time champion crossed the finish line just behind.
It was Mercedes’ third win in four races, a remarkable achievement considering they were the fourth and sometimes even fifth best team in the first five races of the season.
Spectacular win at Spa shows Verstappen is in trouble
Every race since Miami in May, when Lando Norris took his breakthrough victory for McLaren to halt Red Bull’s early dominance, has been tight and unpredictable.
“We weren’t expecting to be competing with the McLarens or the Red Bulls at this stage of the season because of how we started,” Hamilton said. “So now that we’re close, the second half of the season is going to be a blast.”
“We have to keep our feet on the ground,” said team boss Toto Wolff. “In terms of performance changes, we see a positive trend on our side and a negative trend on other teams, but I don’t think we should get ahead of ourselves on how the second half of the season is going to be.
“We can be cautiously optimistic, but we have to prove it with 10 races to go.”
Norris was left to rue another small but decisive error after going off track at the first corner, dropping him from fourth to seventh and dropping him to fifth in a race the McLaren driver started as one of the favourites.
Norris later said that “maybe he was trying too hard and he was paying the price for it.”
And although Max Verstappen failed to match pre-race predictions that he would start from 11th after a grid penalty for using too many engine parts, his eventual fourth place still extended his championship lead over Norris to 78 points.
So, in a championship where it is now impossible to predict every race because the fight at the top between Red Bull, McLaren and Mercedes – and sometimes Ferrari – is so tight, it seems almost inevitable that it will end up in the hands of Verstappen.
Will slow start cost Mercedes dearly?
But Belgium stressed that it was a shame, from the point of view of objective interest in competitive racing, that McLaren and Mercedes had started the season slowly.
How different the outlook for the final 10 races would be if Verstappen had not taken four wins from the first five races as those two teams struggled to find their feet.
Mercedes, though still fluctuating in form from race to race, are on a roll. McLaren, the more consistent leader, have let one or two wins slip away. And Verstappen, despite his comfortable championship lead, is almost begging his Red Bull team to up their game.
“A lot of the other guys have had some great races,” Verstappen said. “But they are quite far back in the championship.
“For me, with a car that is probably not the fastest in the race at the moment, it is just about limiting the damage and trying to be as close as possible on every occasion. And that is what we have been doing lately.
“Of course, I hope we can get a bit more performance, because that will make life a bit easier for us in the race.”
Verstappen looks set to face a rearguard battle for the remainder of the season, although it shouldn’t be particularly difficult given the size of his points lead and the quality of his driving.
Norris would have to close in on him by an average of eight points per race for the rest of the season to beat him for the championship. That’s doable, but difficult.
In the constructors’ championship, Red Bull is in a relatively difficult situation: two cars are scoring points and McLaren again overtook Red Bull in Belgium thanks to Oscar Piastri’s second place and Norris’ fifth.
They are now just 43 points behind Red Bull, and McLaren’s quest to finish the season as constructors’ champion, for the first time in 25 years, is well underway.
Red Bull’s problem is that only one car is scoring many points. Verstappen’s team-mate Sergio Perez had the latest in a long list of disappointing races, falling from a solid second place on the grid to finish last in the leading group.
It now seems certain that he will be replaced during the summer break, just two months after a new two-year contract was signed that was set to keep the Mexican in his post until the end of 2026.
Reserve driver Liam Lawson and racer Daniel Ricciardo are vying to replace him.
The mistakes that are holding McLaren back
McLaren have further improvements to make in the final ten races of the season after the summer break; they have implemented fewer than Red Bull so far. If they can correct some of their small mistakes, they will progress even faster.
“I just need to reset,” said Norris, whose mistake of distractedly running into the gravel at the first corner in an attempt to avoid contact cost him dearly.
“I have given away a lot of points in the last three or four races for stupid things: mistakes, bad starts, now Turn One.
“It’s silly stuff, not even difficult. In the first corner, I don’t get into trouble, I try to make sure there’s a gap so I don’t get hit and go off the track.
“The pace is good, the team is doing an amazing job. In a way, I just want to continue because we are in good shape, the pace was strong today, but in the last two or three races I have not been as good as I needed to be and I have lost a lot of points. I will come back stronger.”
Team principal Andrea Stella was lenient. “Lando got a little distracted from what was happening on the inside and went off track,” Stella said. “It’s marginal stuff. It just requires a little adjustment here and there.
“We work with Lando and Oscar to try to see all the opportunities where we can improve individually but also collaborate better to be more prepared or better use our skills and talents.
“It doesn’t necessarily change our attitude, but it gives us some elements to analyze how some of the missed opportunities manifest themselves.
“For Lando, for example, it seems that statistically there are some opportunities that tend to occur in the early stages of the race.
“So we have to check if it is the early stages of the race for some reason or it is just random, but like any other athlete or driver, Lando, with the support of the team, will have to think about what I can do better to make sure we build on the good work we are doing.”
Piastri was not faultless either, despite following up his maiden win in Hungary last weekend with a solid third place at the track, just behind the Mercedes drivers as he crossed the line, and being promoted to second by Russell’s disqualification.
He messed up his final pit stop and it cost him two seconds, which could have cost him the chance of winning, but given the unexpected difficulty of overtaking in the race, it probably made no difference.
Despite the small mistakes, they have now achieved a podium position in 10 consecutive races.
Stella said: “I keep hearing that McLaren have the best car, but I keep throwing water on the fire. There are four cars that are pretty much at the same level and there is a bit of variability which is a function of the track and even the conditions to a certain extent, as Mercedes did a good job today.”
Ferrari were also in the fight in Belgium, with Charles Leclerc finishing just eight seconds behind the winner and confirming they have overcome their rebound problems introduced by an upgrade four races ago.
“The competition was really high today,” said Russell, before being disqualified. “It seemed like the pace between me, Lewis, Oscar and the Red Bulls, Charles as well, was very, very close, which was a real surprise for everyone. So it’s going to be a real battle.
“If the season started in Montreal (Mercedes’ first genuinely competitive race), the championship standings would be very, very different.
“It’s going to be great. There’s a lot of motivation from all the other teams to get back on top, from McLaren, from Ferrari, from ourselves. So, for sure, it’s not going to be easy. And, you know, we hope to have a good fight next year.”
