Queensland coach Billy Slater has some pressing selection headaches ahead of the 2024 State of Origin decider on July 17, with several disappointing stars in Game II.
The Maroons were absolutely dominated during a record-breaking first 40 minutes in Melbourne, with New South Wales’ forwards proving too physical and their defenders too powerful.
Both the outcome and performance in Game II have raised some recruiting questions that Slater must answer before Game III arrives.
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With the series level and QLD proving they can play football and score points during the second half of Game II, Slater will likely resist making any radical changes.
However, there are some problems with the Maroons team that their coach simply cannot ignore if they want to make it three straight series wins.
Here foxsports.com.au analyzes the state of the Maroons team’s game before the decisive match.
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THE ENIGMA OF SLATER’S OUTER BACK
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow suffered an AC joint injury in Game II, Selwyn Cobbo has “things he would like to work on in his game” and Valentine Holmes was dominated by Latrell Mitchell in Melbourne.
Going into Game 3, Slater has a glaring problem in the centre. If the Hammer is fit but not fit, can he be risked for such a crucial game?
If Tabuai-Fidow is not fit, will Cobbo’s performances have improved enough to earn Slater’s retirement?
How will this affect whether Valentine Holmes remains in the team or not, given that he missed a game-high six tackles as the Blues scored three tries in their lead?
After the game, Slater insisted that he had not yet thought about any changes in Game III, and that was fair, too. However, as the loss grows even larger in the rearview mirror, this may change.
The most worrying aspect of the collective performance of QLD’s outside defenders was their difficulty in getting the ball out of their zone.
Too often, the Maroons defensive line was forced to retreat taking the ball out of its own half and adding to the already heavy workload of its forwards.
Speaking on NRL 360 on Thursday night, Fox League’s James Hooper believes Dane Gagai and Selwyn Cobbo should be in Billy Slater’s thoughts.
“Dane Gagai has never let you down in that area,” Hooper said.
“Selwyn Cobbo has been a revelation in the centers this year. I think he can deal with the task of containing Latrell.”
However, Hooper was unsure if Cobbo would be ready for the decider and the Herculean task that is marking Latrell Mitchell.
This leaves Billy Slater at a selection crossroads for the decider, with two of his centers injured, one out of form and struggling against a threatening opponent, and another aging and two years removed from his last appearance in the Origin arena.
‘It’s clear that Billy made mistakes’ | 03:26
BRING BACK FIFITA?
Now let’s move on to the $1 million elephant in the room.
Billy may not like to admit it, but Queensland could do with a blistering David Fifita in Game II. Anyone who watched their lack of threat in Game II could see that.
So could James Hooper of the Fox League. Speaking on NRL 360 on Thursday night, Hooper insisted Queensland “need to look at David Fifita”.
His sentiments were shared by veteran journalist Buzz Rothfield.
“You needed a forward edge that could take any football team off the field. “David Fifita needed to be on that team,” he stated.
Whether or not Fifita deserves to start again alongside Jaydn Su’a and Jeremiah Nanai is another debate in itself, but what cannot be disputed is his impact off the bench.
There is arguably no more destructive ball-runner in the NRL this season than David Fifita, who has shown in recent weeks he is more than just an eye-catching back-rower as the Titans’ form has picked up.
Fifita has excelled in the low-effort areas of his game; get the ball out of your own field and be stronger defensively.
Their 62 tackle breaks this season are the 12th most in the NRL this season, highlighting the destructive impact the Titans’ advantage could bring to the table.
Of course, the counterargument was that he lost selection in both Origin games to more versatile players than him: Selwyn Cobbo and Kurt Capewell.
However, if Slater’s experiment in returning to the bench ends as soon as it began, can anyone make a strong case for Fifita having more of an impact than Capewell?
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SET BENCH ROTATION FORWARD
On Thursday night’s NRL 360, Hooper criticised the Queensland trade.
“I thought it was obvious that Billy made mistakes at his bank,” he said.
Harry Grant came on at hooker but failed to get into a game where Queensland lacked attacking momentum to exploit. Mo Fotuaika ran for 71 metres in his 35 minutes, a respectable performance.
However, Felise Kaufusi was limited to just eight minutes in Game II, five of which came in the final moments of the game, when the contest was already definitively over.
Kurt Capewell spent half his time on the field in the centre when Tabuai-Fidow left the field.
Add to that Patrick Carrigan’s suspension and it was a tough night to be a Queensland centre-forward.
Not only did they do a mountain of defensive work, but they also had to play big minutes due to their bench’s ineffectiveness.
In particular, Slater is unable to call up Tom Fleger, Tom Gilbert and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, who are all absent with long-term injuries. This drastically affects Queensland’s average turnover.
In the first match, Slater also used J’Maine Hopgood for half an hour. However, the Eels second row missed the second match due to a back injury which has ruled him out for the remainder of the NRL season.
This leaves a huge void in the midfield backup rotation that needs to be addressed before Game III, especially when you consider how effective Isaah Yeo and Spencer Leniu have been off the bench in this series.
Kaufusi can cure this headache by increasing his minutes, or Slater can turn to players like Trent Loeiro, Brendan Piakura or David Fifita.
SHOULD EZRA MAM ENTER?
This is probably the least likely change from Queensland’s Game III, but it’s one that could be assessed closer to game day.
Tom Dearden didn’t have a great night in Melbourne, with and without the ball.
The Cowboys were beaten at five-eighths at the Blues’ first attempt, although that was as much down to Liam Martin’s fine line as a poor defensive read by Dearden.
The 23-year-old made some crucial errors in possession, including losing the ball on a tackle by Mitch Moses early in the second half, which were detrimental to his team.
Dearden has a great combination with Queensland captain Daly Cherry-Evans, which should not be underestimated at this level, and was one of the best on the ground in Game I.
But given how electrifying Brisbane’s Ezra Mam has been this season, could Slater be tempted to make a drastic change to his halves for the decider?
