Labour would repeat the mistakes of the Tony Blair era and send the welfare bill “out of control”, Mel Stride has warned.
The Work and Pensions Secretary has said Sir Keir Starmer’s plans will lead to “hundreds of thousands” more people languishing on handouts.
In an interview with The Telegraph, he added that the Labour leader would have to raise taxes to cover the rising cost of welfare payments.
Britain’s social bill stood at £32bn when New Labour came to power in 1997, but had doubled to £63bn by the time it left office in 2010.
Post-pandemic peak
It is estimated to reach £100bn a year from 2028, following a post-pandemic surge in long-term illnesses driven by an increase in mental health problems.
Labour will inherit record levels of long-term illness if it wins the election with 2.8 million Britons discharged from hospital, an increase of 700,000 since the Covid pandemic.
The Conservatives have unveiled plans to cut sick leave, which would bring 424,000 of those people closer to returning to work.
But it is unclear whether Sir Keir, who has previously called the benefits sanctions “punitive”, would reverse the reforms once in power.
‘Diluting it’
“If they start to dismantle it or water it down, all we’re going to see is that the number of people receiving these benefits is going to increase dramatically,” Stride said.
“Hundreds and hundreds of thousands more people are getting those benefits in the long run. We’ve seen that before – that’s what they did last time.”
The unemployment rate rose dramatically under New Labour, from 5.3% to 7.9%, and fell to 4.4% under the Conservatives.
Youth unemployment soared by almost 45% during his time in power.
‘Absolutely abysmal’
“They talk a lot of good things about how they’re going to stand up for young people, but if you look at their track record, it’s absolutely abysmal,” Stride said.
“If we look at welfare, we have the point of expenditure, but we also have the number of people who were trapped in long-term benefits.
“More than a million people were trapped in them for almost a decade. Now is when it is really going to be unstuck.”
Sir Keir has said he wants to “build on the legacy” of Blair-era policies that saw overall levels of child and pensioner poverty fall.
