In 2014, the BJP benefited from the environment created by corruption.
Let us go back in time and recall the period of 2014. When Narendra Modi became the candidate for the post of Prime Minister, the people of the country were worried about the news of corruption and scams. Manmohan Singh was promoted as the Prime Minister, working as a subordinate to the Congress President. The opposition also questioned his silence on the big scams. The Congress also seemed unable to give a precise response to the allegations. Narendra Modi, who had become a brand in Gujarat, took advantage of this environment. The people who expected a change supported him and the BJP formed a government with an absolute majority. Then, for 10 years, the wind of nationalism blew and Narendra Modi emerged as its biggest icon. The BJP continued to occupy the Hindi belt from the Panchayat to the Parliament. The credit for the victory in the Municipal Corporation also fell on the head of Prime Minister Modi. The blame for the defeat in Jharkhand, Bihar and Karnataka fell on local leaders. In 2019, the Balakot airstrike and surgical strike boosted PM Modi’s credibility. The public gave him a chance to form the government for the second time. In Modi 2.0, bold decisions like scrapping Article 370 and implementing the Statutory Acts Act were also taken. Even during the Corona period, the public stood by Narendra Modi. People did what he/she said. This was the peak of his popularity, seeing it, the entire world including the opposition was stunned. Despite the farmers’ agitation and deaths due to Corona, the BJP returned to power in UP. Last year, when the Bharatiya Janata Party came to power in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Narendra Modi was considered invincible.
In 2024, the BJP got caught in its own “free” and “cash” trick
The situation changed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Despite better election management and aggressive campaigning, the BJP could not reach the figure of 273 for an absolute majority. The opposition’s morale was boosted when the BJP, which contested the elections on the basis of nationalism, free ration and Modi’s magic, was stuck at 240. BJP leaders say they could not find a solution to the confusion spread by the opposition over the end of reservation, 10-kg free ration and instant delivery of Rs 8,500. Experts believe that Narendra Modi himself was caught in the trap of his own scheme. The BJP considered the Ram temple, five-kg free ration and cash delivery system as the panacea for victory. After Corona, a class of voters was created who vote en masse for free schemes. In the Lok Sabha elections, the opposition increased the number of free schemes and cash. At the organisational level, the Modi-Shah duo narrowed down the ballots of around 100 MPs in the name of age and performance and gave ballots to faces from other parties. But the BJP made a big mistake in this selection. It gave tickets to MPs who were not seen in the area and fielded leaders whom the public did not even recognise. Most of the BJP candidates were confident of winning against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the result is already known.
There is still time… The BJP must find answers to these questions
The big question is: who after Modi? The credit for the best work of the central government went to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The credit for the development taking place in the states continues to go to PM Modi. In the Modi-Shah era, the BJP was unable to present a face that could become an alternative to PM Narendra Modi. A similar situation occurred in 2004, when the stature of great leaders started to decline against the image of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. After losing an election under the leadership of LK Advani, it took 10 years for the organisation to have another leader. Most people, along with political pundits, have accepted that 2024 is the last election for PM Narendra Modi, because he will be 78 years old in 2029. This narrative is making a place among the people at a very fast pace. Its effect will be visible in the next two years as well. The BJP may call it an opposition move, but so far no preparation is seen by the party against this narrative. The party does not present any leader as an alternative nor does it deny one.
The middle class is empty-handed: The urban middle class has been the BJP’s main voter base, but in the last ten years it has received nothing but the poison of nationalism. Those who pay taxes on every purchase have not been given an exemption from income tax. Government jobs have been cut. The situation was similar in the time of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, when the NDA government reduced the size of the government and filled the exchequer. In 2004, the Sensex was booming and India’s foreign exchange reserves crossed $100 billion for the first time. When the government changed, the Congress distributed jobs from this exchequer. Today, at the government level, the BJP is repeating the same mistake. The opposition has the big problem of unemployment and inflation in its hands. Now this issue is becoming popular with the common people as well.
Only PM Modi’s brand: In the last ten years, the BJP has followed the footsteps of the Congress. Just as in the Congress the Gandhi family wins and local leaders are blamed for the defeat, a similar practice has developed in the BJP. The BJP is making headway with the Modi brand. One-sided credit for the election victory has been given to Prime Minister Modi, while in states like Madhya Pradesh, local leaders like Shivraj Singh Chauhan have played a major role. In Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath is also very popular among the public. Wherever the BJP has won, the organisational leaders who took care of the election management with the Modi face have not been given the credit. Running a government and an organisation is a team effort, but it was linked to the Modi brand.
BJP alleges congressification: Leaders brought in from the Congress and other parties got a place in the party, the government and the organisation, while only workers who had worked hard for the organisation for years remained. Most of the leaders who came in from other parties were those who were defeated by the BJP leaders in the elections and were looking for their political future. These leaders were also given ministerial berths at the centre and in the states. This attitude of the party was enough to break the morale of the senior workers. Now, in hushed tones, the leaders are talking about the Congressification of the BJP.
Old records that have been broken for a year: The BJP’s core supporters have considered the slogan of “Different Party” to be the ideal one. The Narendra Modi government has been given a second and third chance because it has taken innovative decisions on the core issues of the BJP apart from national security. Over the last one year, the party has been chanting some issues like toilets, free rations and fifth economic power, which Narendra Modi has repeated many times at the Red Fort, Parliament, election campaign and abroad. The party spokespersons also repeat the same issues again and again in television debates. Most of these issues are economic and freedom issues, which the lower and middle class do not understand. It is well known that irrespective of who is in power, the era of economic liberalisation will continue. This government will have to change its appearance along with a new attitude.
