As NBA free agency continues, one name that remains in trade talks is Zach LaVine.
It’s no secret that the Bulls want to move on from their All-Star guard. On June 20, NBC Sports Chicago’s KC Johnson reported that Bulls general manager Arturas Karnišovas has reached out to several teams to discuss a trade for LaVine.
“Sources said Karnišovas has submitted as many as 15 proposals targeting the two-time All-Star guard to various teams, including the Sacramento Kings, Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers.”
More than a week later, ESPN’s Bobby Marks reported that the Bulls’ efforts have been completely fruitless.
“There’s no market for Zach LaVine. They’re trying to give him away and attach a first-round pick. Many, many people have told me that.”
Yesterday, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times made it clear that nothing has changed regarding LaVine’s availability. Furthermore, the relationship between LaVine and Bulls management has turned sour.
“The elephant in the room — as it has been for two years — is what to do with two-time All-Star Zach LaVine, who has three years and more than $137 million remaining on his maximum contract. The Bulls continue to shop LaVine and have fielded dozens of trade options in the past few months alone, according to a source. An NBA insider told the Sun-Times on Tuesday that the relationship between LaVine and the team’s brass is completely torn and “rife with mistrust.”
It couldn’t be clearer that the Bulls are willing to part ways with LaVine by virtually any means necessary. Given how cheap he is to acquire and the scoring potential he brings, does it make sense for the Hawks?
To be clear, there haven’t been any reports directly linking LaVine to Atlanta. However, the Hawks technically have an opening at shooting guard after trading away Dejounte Murray. Financially, Atlanta has the contracts to match LaVine’s salary. LaVine is owed $43 million in 2024-25. By sending away Clint Capela ($22 million) and DeAndre Hunter ($21 million), the Hawks would be receiving virtually the same amount of money they’re sending. It’s also true that the Hawks could likely get draft capital from Chicago. The Bulls clearly want to rebuild — recent reports indicate they would pay a first-round pick to get off LaVine’s contract. I don’t think Atlanta could get two first-round picks from the Bulls as they’re entering a rebuild. Based on the information available, the framework for a LaVine-to-Atlanta trade could look something like this:
Atlanta gets: Zach LaVine, 2028 first-round pick (top five are protected)
Chicago gets: Clint Capela, DeAndre Hunter
Even though Atlanta would be getting an All-Star talent and a lightly protected first-round pick, I still think Atlanta shouldn’t make this deal. LaVine’s defensive concerns, his contract, and his alignment with the Hawks’ track record make this a high-risk, low-reward move.
On the court, a healthy LaVine would mesh quite well with Trae Young as a high-level offensive tandem. When he’s playing with a high-level point guard, his explosive athleticism and understanding of space are on full display. He puts a lot of pressure on the rim by cutting to the basket at exactly the right time. He’s a very talented finisher at the rim and I think that would only be magnified when he’s on the receiving end of Young’s passes. In his last healthy season, he hit 48.5% of his field goal attempts at the rim. To put that into context, that would have been somewhere between Luka Doncic and Jamal Murray.
Since LaVine only played in 25 games last year, it’s easy to forget how talented a three-point shooter he is. As a Bull, LaVine is a 38% shooter from beyond the arc on an impressive seven total attempts per game. That’s over seven seasons of data, so his three-point numbers aren’t the result of a small sample size. He knocks down those threes from the other end of the floor in a variety of different plays and contexts. He’s a functional point guard, but he’s not someone who can be relied upon to make high-level reads (especially in clutch moments). For the Hawks, I don’t think this will be a huge issue since Young is going to be the primary point guard. LaVine’s playmaking responsibilities should be kept to a minimum due to the presence of Jalen Johnson on the roster.
Many of the questions about LaVine come on defense. It’s easily one of the most concerning parts of his adjustment to Atlanta’s roster. He’s an average on-ball defender — his defensive EPM, which is a way to measure defensive impact, ranked in the 69th and 68th percentile respectively over the past two seasons. However, he struggles to make an impact as an off-ball defender. He frequently has mental lapses and mistakes that negatively impact the defensive pieces around him. In a backcourt with an already defensively limited point guard like Young, I have a hard time seeing how that backcourt won’t be targeted by opponents on defense.
Getting a player who projects well on offense but doesn’t fit well on defense seems like a good move if the cost is low. LaVine’s contract is far from a bargain. It’s a max contract with cap hits of $43 million, $46 million and a player option for $49 million. The best version of the Hawks is probably the one with Young and Johnson as the first and second options. It’s just too expensive for the third option to make as much as the first option.
Once Johnson’s max extension kicks in, the Hawks would have three max contracts on their books. For 2025-26, Young will make $46 million, LaVine $46 million, and Johnson can conservatively be expected to make $31 million. Risacher will make around $12 million, Okongwu $14 million, and Bogdanovic $16 million. All told, the top six rotation players will make around $165-166 million. That gives them around $4-5 million to fill out the roster before hitting the tax. It’s possible for Atlanta to work that way, but it reduces their margin for error. The Hawks would also almost certainly become a luxury tax team, something owners have opposed in the past.
Under the CBA’s new restrictions, the only teams that should be thinking about having three max contracts are those with legitimate championship aspirations. Unless Johnson makes a jump to the NBA and LaVine steps up on defense, it would be hard to imagine. I also wonder how LaVine’s presence would affect Risacher’s growth. He’d likely be the fourth option on most nights, which is a tough environment for a first-round draft pick to develop in.
While injuries have become somewhat exaggerated with LaVine, I do think there is reason to be concerned. He suffered a Jones fracture last season that required foot surgery to correct. He should be fully healed from that injury, but he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in 2022. He returned to a healthy workload after the knee surgery, but it’s definitely worth considering that he’s already suffered significant knee and foot injuries. However, I don’t think injuries should automatically rule him out as a target for Atlanta.
Furthermore, if the LaVine experiment doesn’t work out, the contract becomes nearly impossible to negotiate. Having 30% of the available cap space taken up by a player with a negative net balance would severely hamper roster flexibility. A LaVine trade would make sense for a team like the Warriors. They have one of the greatest players of all time in Stephen Curry and clearly lack the pieces to compete in the Western Conference. Even if the LaVine trade doesn’t work out, they can rationalize it as an attempt to capitalize on Curry’s talent and use the pick in their post-Curry rebuild.
The Hawks aren’t in that position. They’re still trying to figure out what Jalen Johnson’s potential is and how Young will work with this reconfigured roster. They also don’t have their own picks, so a rebuild isn’t likely to happen for at least the next two years. It’s possible that Young will grow increasingly unhappy with his situation and demand a trade next offseason, but I think the Hawks should do everything in their power to make sure Jalen Johnson firmly defends his position as Young’s long-term partner. A young co-star is one of the most attractive things a team could offer Young. Bringing in LaVine to take touches away from Johnson could put that in jeopardy.
In the modern NBA, stars are available for trade during virtually every transaction cycle. If LaVine’s injury history lengthens, his defensive issues become more apparent or he stymies the development of Risacher/Johnson, his contract will have the Hawks wishing they had a little more patience.
