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The writer is Professor at the Institute of Housing and Urban Research at Uppsala University and Author of ‘The Price Is Wrong: Why Capitalism Won’t Save the Planet’
There is growing evidence that the world is finally winning in the energy transition away from fossil fuels. This idea is often supported by charts showing “exponential growth” in global renewable energy capacity and generation in recent years.
As comforting as this view may be, we need to throw cold water on it. It is clear that we are not winning yet and it is time to stop pretending that we are.
Looking at global renewable energy growth rates is highly misleading. There is no single energy transition, but a series of regional transitions of widely varying shapes, pace and scope. The sheer importance of one of these (China’s) means that global figures conceal more than they reveal. They currently look impressive because, and only because, China’s are.
In 2023, according to figures released by the International Renewable Energy Agency, China accounted for an extraordinary 63% of total global net renewable capacity additions (298 gigawatts out of a total of 473 GW). Even more extraordinary was its share of the year-over-year growth in global net capacity additions, which was 96%. Excluding China, 2023 net renewable capacity additions were just 7 GW higher than in 2022. Several words could be used to describe that growth, but “exponential” is not one of them.
The problem is that we need rapid growth in renewable energy investment everywhere, not just in China. In fact, when we break down the “global” energy transition into its regional components, the problem looks even more acute.
Consider Africa and Asia (excluding China). These regions have the most pressing need for investment in low-carbon energy sources. Their energy sectors are among the most fossil-fuel intensive and are expected to lead global growth in electricity consumption. Yet they have invested little in renewable capacity. Between 2018 and 2023, annual net additions of renewable capacity grew at a compound annual rate of 10% globally, but only 5% in Africa. Compare that to 16% in China. The pace of progress is slowest precisely where it is most needed.
And so, several decades after governments around the world began taking steps to actively support investment in renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation (the largest source of anthropogenic emissions, but also the only thing we know how to easily decarbonize) continue to rise.
Debunking the “exponential growth” narrative is important not only because it is misleading in that it confuses a Chinese story with a global story, but also because the narrative is politically relevant and dangerous.
If we are achieving exponential growth with our current approaches, why should we change anything about the way we are currently doing things? Exponential growth is synonymous with success, not failure.
Indeed, the narrative of exponential growth in renewables underpins a number of recent optimistic-leaning books that implicitly or explicitly endorse what are largely business-as-usual approaches to addressing the climate crisis. More specifically, they endorse what is considered business as usual in most of the world outside China, where, of course, business-as-usual behavior looks remarkably different.
Decarbonizing electricity generation as quickly and widely as possible is undoubtedly one of humanity’s most urgent tasks, especially given that the electrification of transport, buildings and industry is at the heart of existing strategies to mitigate global warming almost everywhere.
For better or worse, politics and our economies are driven by narratives. The task of decarbonisation becomes harder, not easier, when these narratives mischaracterise progress and fail to confront uncomfortable facts.
